On February 28, the United States and Israel launched airstrikes against Iran, which retaliated with missile launches of its own within hours. Six months later, the sides remain in conflict, with a peaceful resolution remaining elusive.
As the co-founder and a co-principal investigator of the Arab Barometer, Princeton SPIA Dean Amaney Jamal is keeping a close eye on the situation – and a close ear on what people in the region are saying about it. The Arab Barometer has been conducting public opinion surveys in the Middle East and North Africa for 20 years. A longtime scholar of the region, Jamal has noted a clear shift in attitudes as the war continues.
What are you hearing from your polling about opinions in Iran?
Amaney Jamal: We don't poll in Iran, but what we've been hearing anecdotally from our experts in the network is that, yes, there was a lot of resentment against the Iranian regime. There was a whole wave of protests last year against the regime that resulted in the deaths and imprisonment of thousands of people. But remember, it's not like the Iranian people are very fond of U.S. policy. In fact, that's a constant finding across the Arab Barometer: The U.S. is not very popular because the U.S. basically has been engaged in war in the Middle East for the last quarter of a century, since 9/11, if not longer. And its alliance with Israel has been a liability in terms of hearts and minds in the region, especially after Gaza, where support for the U.S. is at an all-time low.
How likely is regime change at this point?
AJ: I don't think it's very likely. The Iranian regime is clearly weakened but nevertheless has remained resilient. And if anything, the U.S.-Israeli aggression on Iran has sort of unified the Iranian people. They don't necessarily have to love their regime, but they're certainly not going to rise against the regime right now.
Any sort of Middle East expert would have said that if the U.S. wants to see regime change, the thing you shouldn't do is to say to the people of Iran, “We’re going to support you” while you’re bombing Iran. It just doesn't work that way. You're bombing their schools, you're bombing their houses, their infrastructure, and you want them to align with the power that is basically bringing on destruction to ordinary citizens.
Iran has been retaliating against U.S. allies in the region. What is the risk that the conflict broadens beyond what it has been to a wider regional conflict?
AJ: There is a real risk of this getting larger, bringing in many of the Gulf countries, but then there's also the potential of Russia or even China or Turkey and other countries getting involved. Right now it's remained contained, and the Gulf countries really would like to see this end because it's devastating their economies. Somebody just told me that in Dubai right now, the government is paying citizens a $1,000 gift voucher to encourage somebody to come visit there. That's how much the tourism sector has suffered right now in Dubai and all the other Gulf countries as well.
What have the effects of the war been on public opinion in the region?
AJ: In the Middle East, each U.S. attack on Iran has created more support for the Iranian regime. A lot of people are very fond of Iran because Iran is seen as one of the only countries that has, quote unquote, defended the Palestinians. The narrative in the Middle East is that the reason why the U.S. and Israel are going after Iran is that they don't want anybody to support Palestinians, and Iran was willing to do so. Now, of course, Iran is also playing into that propaganda. But nevertheless, the support for Iran is on the rise.
Photo courtesy of Princeton SPIA.
