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Bryan Grenfell

Kathryn Briger and Sarah Fenton Professor of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology and Public Affairs
176.2 JR Rabinowitz


I am a population biologist, working at the interface between theoretical models and spatio-temporal epidemiological data.   My lab members and I investigate the population dynamics of infectious diseases, focusing on their epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics and control by vaccination. We are especially interested in understanding the nonlinear spatio-temporal dynamics of acute immunizing infections and how these are affected by control strategies. We are generalizing an initial and continuing focus on measles and exploring comparative dynamics of a range of pathogens, including influenza, rotavirus, RSV, non-polio enteroviruses, HIV, HCV, and veterinary morbilliviruses. The lab also explores phylodynamics, in particular how pathogen phylogenies are affected by host immunity, transmission bottlenecks and epidemic dynamics at scales from individual host to the population level. We are also keen on exploring ‘cross-scale’ dynamics of pathogens: from within-host dynamics to the population scale and especially the impact of human behavioral dynamics.

Over the last few years, the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic has been a major focus of our group. We have focused in particular on modeling how the (initially very uncertain) immuno-epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of SARS-COV-2 might shape epidemic dynamics and control.

Recent work

Dynamics of measles in developed and developing countries; control implications of vaccine refusal.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of human influenza in the U.S.A.

Linking within-host and population dynamics of human, equine and avian influenza.

Exploring epidemiological and evolutionary implications of novel broad spectrum influenza vaccines.

Population dynamics and control of rotavirus.

Synthesizing epidemic dynamics of immunizing infections with the spatiotemporal economic dynamics of vaccination.

Potential of a global immunological observatory to clarify epidemiological dynamics and future surveillance.

Immuno-epidemiology of the COVID-19 pandemic.