Abstract: Climate change increases weather variability, making it harder for farmers to tailor planting decisions to the coming growing season. In theory, accurate, long-range forecasts overcome this challenge. We experimentally evaluate monsoon onset forecasts in India, randomizing 250 villages into control, forecast, and a benchmark index insurance group. Forecast farmers update their beliefs and behavior: receiving "bad news" relative to farmers' priors reduces cultivated land; receiving "good news" increases cultivation, inputs, and cash cropping. We see suggestive evidence of corresponding changes in agricultural output and welfare. Unlike insurance, forecasts reduce climate risk by enabling farmers to tailor investments to the monsoon.

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