When asked in surveys, Black Americans consistently expressed less support for the Iraq War than their white counterparts, even when controlling for demographic variables, according to new research co-authored by Naima Green-Riley, an assistant professor of politics and international affairs at the Princeton School of Public and International Affairs.

The racial gap in support for war persisted over time, from 2001 to 2014, during both the George W. Bush and Barack Obama presidencies.

The findings offer an opportunity to gain a more comprehensive understanding of American public opinion about American military actions abroad, based on data from the country’s most recent war.

“By understanding the demographics of war support, policy makers can better predict or address or communicate about their foreign policies within different communities around the U.S.,” says Green-Riley, who worked as a foreign service officer in the U.S. State Department before joining Princeton in 2022.

The article, “Whose War is it Anyway? Explaining the Black-White Gap in Support for the Use of Force Abroad,” published recently in Security Studies, represents the most comprehensive quantitative study of how white and Black citizens differ in their support of using American force abroad, according to Green-Riley and her co-author, Tulane University’s Andrew Leber. 

Relying on polling data compiled during the Bush and Obama administrations, the analysis examined several factors that might have influenced war support, including feelings of alienation, priorities around domestic and military spending, and family military involvement. It found that concerns about casualties best explained Black Americans’ lower levels of support for military action.

“We found that Black Americans have greater casualty sensitivity, meaning that they were more likely, on average, to express concern about casualties during the war,” Green-Riley says.

Green-Riley noted that while not always the case, at some points in history, there have been differentials in war casualties that have caused alarm in the Black community. For example, Black soldiers suffered a disproportionate number of casualties during the first few years of the Vietnam War, fueling lasting perceptions within Black communities that they are more likely to die in combat.

Notably, the researchers found no evidence that the concern over casualties was driven by an individual’s direct concern for themselves or their family members. Rather, Black citizens demonstrated a greater concern for members of their race as a whole — a finding that indicates support for a longstanding concept in political science called “linked fate,” which is often used to explain political cohesion among groups.

Concerns about war outcomes may be exacerbated by the fact that, compared with the national population, Black Americans are overrepresented in today’s military. They make up 17% of the active-duty military force while constituting about 13% of the population, according to 2015 records from the Census Bureau. (White Americans, on the other hand, are underrepresented in the military, making up 60% of active-duty personnel and 62% of the broader population.)

While a gender gap in support for military action abroad has previously been observed, Green-Riley says that differences according to race have received less attention. When she and Leber first noticed the potential for studying racial attitudes toward the use of force abroad as graduate students at Harvard, they were shocked to realize the topic had been understudied. They believe their findings underscore a need for broader research that can help explain what drives public opinion on national security policy within different racial and ethnic groups.

“As the field has become more diverse, there’s an increasing realization that factors like race and other demographics also affect foreign policy attitudes,” she says. “I've been happy to join a community of scholars who are trying to focus on these issues and bring them into the scholarly debate.”

Green-Riley has already placed the new research on her syllabus. She hopes that by reading it, her graduate students will absorb why policymakers should consider how diverse communities weigh the impact of their decisions on their lives.

“We are living in a time when scholars are beginning to open their eyes to the way race affects international relations,” she says. “I hope it is a trend that continues.”