Iran shot down a U.S. military drone, escalating tensions between the two countries. Ready to strike back, President Trump called off a response Friday morning, saying it was “not proportionate.”

We discussed the implications of these recent events with Ryan Crocker of Princeton University’s Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs.

Crocker is a visiting lecturer and diplomat-in-residence. He has served as U.S. ambassador six times: Afghanistan (2011-2012), Iraq (2007-2009), Pakistan (2004-2007), Syria (1998-2001), Kuwait (1994-1997), and Lebanon (1990-1993).

Q. Iran shot down a U.S. military drone, escalating tensions between the two countries. The country also supposedly attacked two U.S. ships. What’s your reaction to these incidents?

Crocker: We are witnessing a significant escalation of tension in the Persian Gulf amid some confusion over what actually has happened and who is responsible. While Iran and the U.S. agree that a U.S. surveillance drone was shot down by Iran, they differ over its location. The U.S. asserts it was over international waters while Iran maintains it was within Iran's territorial limits. Adding to the uncertainty were signs of disorganization within the White House as reports emerged of President Trump first authorizing a retaliatory strike and then rescinding it.

Q. What do these actions signify?

Crocker: There are several points to bear in mind as we seek to understand the meaning of these chaotic events. First, we have been here before with greater violence than what we are witnessing today. In the mid-1980s — during the Iran-Iraq war — repeated Iranian attacks on tankers carrying Arab crude oil exports led to the reflagging of Kuwaiti tankers under the U.S. flag, allowing American warships to escort them. The attacks stopped. U.S. retaliation against Iran during this crisis included attacks on Iranian oil export facilities on Kharg Island in the Persian Gulf as well as the sinking of Iranian attack boats.

Q. As relations strain further, do you think there's a possibility of a war between the U.S. and Iran?

Crocker: The Iranians are not likely to prevail in a spiral of escalation. We have significantly more firepower in the Gulf than they do. And if hostilities impact the export of Iranian crude from the Gulf, the Iranians will suffer where they can least afford it: their weakening economy. However, over the longer term, Iran does possess the ability to inflict pain on the U.S. and others through their proxies in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and elsewhere.

Q. What do you think of the administration’s response to the incidents?

All eyes are on Washington. This is becoming the first major international crisis the Trump administration has faced after almost two and a half years in office. Contradictory signals from the White House run the risk of emboldening adversaries, confusing allies and increasing the risks of dangerous miscalculation. This is not a campaign rally. It is the real deal.  

WWS Reacts is a series of interviews with Woodrow Wilson School experts addressing current events. These are the opinions of the faculty and do not reflect or represent Princeton University or the Woodrow Wilson School.